FutureGen Clean Coal Project Cancelled

The Bush administration dropped its support for a $1.8 billion planned 275-megawatt coal-fired plant power plant designed to store greenhouse gases underground, because of ballooning costs. This decision comes about a month after the private partners in the project picked Mattoon, Illinois as the site for the project. Congress appropriated $108 million for the plant that was authorized by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, but the cost of the project has doubled and other technologies could be better. The Center would like to see a conversion plant that converts carbon dioxide into gasoline. FutureGen is one of the most advanced projects for determining whether emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, can be captured from coal-fired plants and stored, or sequestered, underground. The Center will examine whether CO2 to gasoline conversion qualifies for the FutureGen project. By contrast, the FutureGen project is a nonprofit venture that included 13 utilities and coal companies constructing of a plant that would turn coal to gas, strip out and store underground the carbon dioxide that contributes to climate change, and then burn the remaining gas to produce electricity and hydrogen.

The project is a joint venture between a private industry alliance, which would cover 26 percent of the cost and the Department of Energy, which was supposed to cover 74 percent. Half of the nation's electricity is produced by coal-fired plants so dealing with the carbon dioxide for is important for reducing this main greenhouse gas emission that is producing climate change. The cost was first estimated in 2004 at $950 million and the $1.8 billion final cost estimate assumed that construction costs escalate at a 5.2 percent annual rate. DOE has refused to issue a record of decision on the environmental impact statement, which blocks development of the project. DOE has decided to pay the cost of adding carbon capture and storage technology to new or existing coal plants bigger than 300 megawatts. (The Washington Post) (The Washington Post)

Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs Come From China

China-born Ellis Yan, right, 53, owns Shanghai, China-based TCP Inc, the largest manufacturer of compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs sold in the U.S. About 200 million CFL bulbs were sold in 2006 and TCP provided 70% of those bulbs. GE and Sylvania are gearing up to compete with TCP and currently resell TCP bulbs under their names. TCP is currently the main supplier of CFLs to Home Depot and Wal-Mart. TCP has 3,000 employees.

Two big events have helped in the advancement of CFLs. One was the electricity crisis in California in 2001, which led to a huge conservation push that included replacing light bulbs. Second is the Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007, which phases out traditional incandescent light bulbs by 2012. Mercury is a concern in CFLs. About five milligrams of mercury are used in the typical bulb. A tiny amount of mercury is heated until it turns into gas that reacts with other gases to produce light. Mercury is toxic. (The Wall Street Journal, 12/27/07)

European Union Proposing New Global Warming Plan

The European Union plans to establish firm caps on emissions by 27 countries designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 20 % below 1990 levels between 2013 and 2020. The reduction would be increased to 30 % if the United States and China signed binding climate change agreements. Of course this will not happen. This plan will auction 60 percent of the emissions permits initially and all of them by 2020. The previous cap-and-trade system did not auction credits. At least 20 % of E.U. energy has to be derived from renewable sources, including 10 percent from biofuels. The measures are similar to provisions to the Lieberman/Warner cap-and-trade bill, which would mandate a reduction by 2020 of about 20 percent below greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. The E.U. plan must still be approved by the European Parliament.

The Bush administration is hosting a second meeting of large economies this month in Honolulu, Hawaii to discuss initiatives on global warming. The administration also participated in the "Bali Roadmap" meeting organized by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2007 that is negotiating a new, post Kyoto Protocol (ends 2012) climate change agreement by 2009. The Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007 is projected to eliminate 6 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases because it raised auto fuel efficiency to 35 mpg. The U.S. and the E.U. have also proposed to the WTO to eliminate tariff and non-tariff trade barriers to clean technologies and services. The administration is working with Australia, India and China via the Asia-Pacific Partnership to promote technologies to reduce global warming.

Will Small Cars Sell To Save Money, Gasoline & Environment?

Tata Motors of India has introduced its new mini car, the Nano, left. It costs only $2,500. The car was created by Ratan Tata for the Tata Group. The four door vehicle can seat five people.

Mercedes-Benz has the Smart Fortwo micro car, right, which is now available in the United States. You see many of them in Paris already. The question is: Will Americans buy these very small cars in large numbers? (See SmartUSA)

GM Develops Plug-In Fuel Hybrid Electric Battery Vehicle

General Motors has developed the first zero-emission luxury car, the hydrogen- and battery-powered Cadillac concept car designed to run up to 100 miles per hour while emitting only water vapor. It is called the Cadillac Provoq (pronounced "provoke"). GM is now promoting the Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid and the Provoq. GM wants the Volt to be available by 2010. The Provoq has a 300-mile range.

Virginia Uranium Mining Possible

Walter Coles owns property in Chatham, Virginia in Pittsylvania County where he wants to mine uranium on a 200-acre site. Obviously the state and local residents are afraid that such mining could release radioactive material that could contaminate the area's land, air and source of drinking water. It is being estimated that there is approximately 110 million pounds of uranium located on the site that would be worth about $10 billion at today's uranium prices.

Virginia banned uranium mining in 1982. Virginia Uranium, owned by Mr. Coles is trying to persuade the General Assembly to approve a $1 million study that will explore whether uranium can be safely mined in Virginia. Virginia Uranium has already been granted a state permit to drill 40 holes to examine the material. The two uranium deposits found at the site begin at the ground's surface and run about 800 feet deep. The Center will withhold a decision on this project until the study is completed, but our preliminary assessment is that this does not look like it is a project we can support. (The Washington Post)

RGGI Request For Proposals Issued

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc. (RGGI, Inc) is a nonprofit organization formed to provide technical and scientific advisory services to participating states in the development and implementation of the CO2 Budget Trading Program under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Information on the RGGI program is available at http://www.rggi.org/ .On December 20, 2007, RGGI, Inc. issued the following request for proposals (RFP): CO2 Emissions and Allowance Tracking System Implementation Services. The RFP is available at http://www.nescaum.org/ .

Interested proposers should read the document carefully.RGGI, Inc. anticipates entering into an agreement with the selected proposer on or about February 22, 2008. Responses to these RFPs must be received by RGGI, Inc. no later than 5 P.M. EST on January 22, 2008. Late proposals will not be considered. Faxed or e-mailed copies will not be accepted. Specific submittal instructions are described within the RFPs.

Interested proposers should note the following events and dates: Notice of Intent to Propose Form Due: January 3, 2008 Proposers' Conference Call: January 10, 2008Proposal Due Date and Time: January 22, 2008, 5PM EST Notification of Award: February 12, 2008 Contract Execution: February 22, 2008 Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) is facilitating communications with RGGI, Inc. for this RFP, and questions about the solicitation process, as well as the Notice of Intent to Propose Form, should be directed to the following: Charla Rudisill NESCAUM Phone: 617-259-2000 Fax: 617-742-9162 E-mail: rggi@nescaum.org

RGGI Program Overview: http://www.rggi.org/docs/program_summary_10_07.pdf

Public comments on the final allowance auction design study conducted for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the RGGI Staff Working Group: http://www.rggi.org/auction.htm

Letter sent to U.S. Congress from Environmental and Energy Agency Heads in RGGI participating states outlining principles for the design of a U.S. federal greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program. A generic version of the letter is posted that was sent to individual members of Congress from RGGI state delegations, as well as Congressional leadership, and members of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming: http://www.rggi.org/docs/rggi_letter_10_31_07.pdf

DOE Selects "Clean Coal" Demonstration Site

The U.S. Department of Energy's FutureGen Alliance named Mattoon, Illinois, as the site for a new $1.8 billion "clean coal" demonstration plant that will capture carbon dioxide and store it underground permanently. The FutureGen project, which also aims to eventually produce some hydrogen from coal, is expected to be online in 2012.

The plant in downstate Mattoon will be a joint venture between the U.S. Department of Energy and the FutureGen Alliance, a non-profit consortium of coal producers and energy generators. Downstate Illinois has the coal, the geology and the commitment needed to demonstrate this project. The Center supports this project. (Reuters, The Baltimore Sun)

Russia Sends Uranium Fuel To Iran Nuclear Power Plant

Russia sent enriched uranium fuel to Iran today to power the Bushehr nuclear power plant, left, which is expected to start producing electricity in about 6 months. Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which guarantees the uranium fuel will be delivered under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

A recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report concluded that Iran had halted efforts to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. Atomstryexport, the Russian contractor for Bushehr, built the plant. (The Washington Post, Wiki)

Yuan versus Dollar

Ever wonder about what they are talking about when there is a discussion on monetary policy regarding the Chinese yuan compared to the American dollar and its effect on the trade imbalance? Well without getting into it too deeply, Charles Wolf, Jr. of The Wall Street Journal writes:

"In 2005 the yuan was worth 12 U.S. cents. It is currently worth 13.5 cents (7.4 yuan per dollar). Many believe that if the yuan's exchange value were to increase further, perhaps to 17 cents or 18 cents, the bilateral imbalance between the two countries would be substantially reduced, if not eliminated...This reasoning, though plausible, is wrong. [the reasons why are involved] China's exports to the U.S. would thereby become more expensive in U.S. dollars and would therefore decrease, while China's imports from the U.S. would become less expensive in Chinese yuan and therefore would increase."

Wall Street Copying Our Center On Carbon Trading

The New York Mercantile Exchange parent Nymex Holdings and a group of Wall Street trading houses plan to launch an exchange for trading carbon dioxide emissions and other environmental products. The Chicago Climate Exchange launched in 2003. The Center launched its Green Carbon Bank (GCB) and Carbon Mercantile Exchange (CMX) in 2006. Nymex Holdings will call its service the Green Exchange and will offer environmental futures, options and swaps contracts.

Trading by the Green Exchange is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2008. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) launches in 2009 and is a greenhouse gas reduction reduction program by nine Northeastern states. California also has a climate change program. Nynex will own 25% of the Green Exchange with the rest owned by Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase and Credit Suisse Group. Richard Schaeffer will be CEO.

In addition to the Center, it appears that South Africa beat them to the concept and the name (South Africa Green Exchange).

(Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dec 12, 2007) (NPR Interview, Environmental Leader)

Saudia Arabia Wants To Build Nuclear Power Plants

There are currently no nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia. Ali Saleh al-Barrak, head of Saudi Electricity Company wants to change that. He is pronuclear and wants to reduce the amount of petroleum used to generate electricity in his country. Saudi Arabai has 24 million people and the country uses 2 million barrels of oil per day (compared to 20 million per day in the USA).

Saudi Arabia has capacity to generate 31,000 megawatts of electricity. It is estimated that by 2012 Saudi Arabia will fire nearly 60% of its electricity with oil. According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia will consume more than a third of its own oil. Right now production stands at 11 million barrels per day. (The Wall Street Journal, DOE-EIA, IEA)

Communication From The White House

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

STATEMENT OF ADMINISTRATION POLICY
H.R. 6 – Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Reid Amendment)
(Rep. Rahall (D) WV and 198 cosponsors)

The Administration opposes the Reid substitute amendment, which fails to correct many of the highly objectionable provisions identified in previously-issued Statements of Administration Policy on H.R. 6. If H.R. 6 were presented to the President as modified by the Reid substitute amendment, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill.

The Administration strongly opposes the amendment’s tax title, which would raise taxes in several ways that will increase energy costs facing consumers. More specifically, the Administration strongly opposes using the Federal tax code to single out specific industries for punitive treatment. Furthermore, the tax increases included in the Reid substitute amendment vastly exceed the amount necessary to offset the estimated revenue reductions arising from the bill’s fuel economy provisions. The Administration compliments the Senate for giving the Department of Transportation (DOT) the authority to establish a new CAFE standard, which would both improve fuel economy and reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions.

The bill should clarify, however, that DOT should establish this single national regulatory standard, in consultation with the Environmental Protection Agency, and that neither agency should add additional layers of regulation. The Administration also supports an ambitious alternative fuel standard, which should include an effective safety valve, should be technology neutral, and should rely on market innovation instead of statutory prescription. The proposed legislation, however, is excessively prescriptive and fails these tests, picking and choosing among fuel types, and failing to include an adequate safety valve.

The Administration also retains several additional concerns previously outlined in the Statements of Administration Policy on the underlying bill. Congress should seize the current opportunity to enact bipartisan legislation to enhance American energy security and to achieve vital goals of the President’s “Twenty in Ten” initiative proposed more than ten months ago. The Administration urges Congress to put political considerations aside, to repair the repeatedly noted problems with the energy bill, and to send the President legislation that he can sign. [The White House sent it and we posted it]

USA & China Sign Environmental Agreement

China and the United States signed a 10-year agreement to work together on clean technology and sustainable natural resources. The countries also announced the completion of joint study on air pollution, efforts to increase the use of biowaste fuel, and a pledge to collaborate to stop illegal logging.

EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson is part of a U.S. delegation meeting with Chinese officials discussing trade, monetary, and environmental issues.

Dmitry Medvedev Backed By Putin To Rule Russia

Dmitry Medvedev, left, has been selected by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Medvedev at right, to succeed him. Now there is just the matter of an election on March 2, 2008. Medvedev is chairman of the Russian state energy (natural gas) company Gazprom and has been there for 7 years. He is married and has one son.

Medvedev is a 42 year old lawyer and was born in St. Petersburg (known as Leningrad until 1991). Medvedev has never been elected to political office. He graduated from Leningrad State University's law school in 1987 receiving his Ph.D. in law in 1990. Much attention seems to be given to his 5 foot 4 height.

EPA Chief Stephen Johnson Visits China

From Dec. 10 to 15, 2007, EPA's official delegation will give a first-hand account of their trip through photos and diary entries which will be posted 2-3 times per day on EPA's Web site diary , which will be an account of the official EPA delegation's visit to China and the agency's efforts to foster global environmental cooperation through the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED). Administrator Johnson will join Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other senior U.S. officials for the third cabinet level meeting of the SED.

This meeting will focus on integrity of trade, balanced economic development, energy conservation, financial sector reform, environmental sustainability, and advancing bilateral investment. The dialogue waslaunched by President Bush and President Hu in September 2006.

Visit EPA's Trip Diary from China to view daily updates from Administrator Johnson and his staff on their trip to China for the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue.

Contact: Andrew Wilkins, (202) 564-4355

And see Our 2007 Trip To China

Hotel Room Glasses

Are those glasses in your hotel room as clean as they look? Watch the video below and decide for yourself.

Electric Utiltiies Are Entering Twilight Zone

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reconsidering its decision to designate the mid-Atlantic region as a priority area for the placement of new high power lines. This is very bad news for consumers and utilities. DOE should stick to its guns. They must be getting serious heat from the states. The designated areas are "National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors." DOE will take more comments and act accordingly. Come on DOE. We need authority to blast through the selfish NIMBYs who don't want utility lines near them but want to use a ton of electricity every day.

Now the states are considering regulating utilities and that would be a disaster. First they convinced the utilities to divest their power plants back in the 1990s to stimulate competition, now legislatures are considering reversing directions and reregulating them to try to control price increases. The legislatures created this problem in the first place by freezing retail rates. This is just a mess. Regardless, keep deregulation. Just allow it to work. Get out of the way and let the market work.

Maryland Commission on Climate Change Report

Maryland is a signatory to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) along with 12 other Northeastern states. The Maryland Commission on Climate Change (MCCC) wants to cap greenhouse gas emissions with a 90% reduction by 2050. The MCCC was created by Governor Martin O'Malley and includes state legislators, agency heads and environmentalists.

The draft report calls for reducing emission by 15 percent below the 2006 level by 2015. Virginia is considering reducing greenhouse gases by 30 percent by 2030.

New Environmental Legal Web Site For China

The U.S. EPA has launched the EPA - China Environmental Law Initiative Web site that will provide a forumfor sharing information and fostering an ongoing dialogue with China on environmental law.The Web site features information on new developments in Chinese environmental law, links to legal resources such as reports, articles, and the English text of many Chinese environmental laws, and an e-mail update service.

The URL for the Web site is: http://www.epa.gov/ogc/china/initiative_home.htm

Portions of the Web site have been translated into Chinese and are available on the EPA Chinese
Portal: http://www.epa.gov/chinese/simple/initiative.html

Voluntary Carbon Dioxide Offset Market Being Created

The Center is in the forefront of developing a voluntary carbon dioxide (CO2) trading market. Except that we have yet to convince a nuclear company to collateralize our Green Carbon Bank (click on the penguin). Whereas more traditional environmental organizations, other nonprofits and profit companies are basing their offsets on tradition renewable technologies, the Center is basing its offsets on emission free nuclear power. We also intend to market traditional offsets through our Carbon Mercantile Exchange (CMX).

A new Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) aims to certify the validity of voluntary offsets bought by those who want to reduce their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, or 'carbon footprint.' The VCS seeks to increase transparency and quality assurance in the unregulated voluntary market. The VCS wants businesses and other buyers to trust the offsets they buy. The VCS standard is endorsed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), which guarantees permanent emissions reductions that have been independently verified and incorporates a registry that prevents vendors from selling the same offsets twice. The VCS was developed after a two-year consultation including The Climate Group, the International Emissions Trading Assocation (IETA) and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

The Climate Group is a London-based coalition of environmentalists and businessmen working to establish a standardized, international marketplace for trading carbon emissions credits. The program aims to assure purchasers that the carbon credits they buy are genuine and truly represent a carbon-emission reducing project. Each credit represents an offset to a ton of carbon emissions. It is voluntary program and businesses are not required to buy offsets. However, not only is it good public relations for a company to offset their carbon emissions, if enough entities participate, significant reduction can be achived. The program establishes a single database to track the credits to ensure their authenticity. (MarketWatch, Reuters)

PetroChina Is The World's Largest Company

PetroChina, the main oil and gas producer in China, became the world's largest company after trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 5, 2007. Now they are bigger than Exxon Mobil.

PetroChina produced 1 billion barrels of oil in 2006 and had revenue of $92 billion. Jiang Jiemin is the chairman of PetroChina.

Congress Overrides Bush Veto of Water Resources Bill

The U.S. Senate voted 79-14 on Nov 8 to override last week's veto by President George W. Bush of a $23 billion water bill, HR 1495, the Water Resources and Development Act of 2007. On Nov 6 the House voted 361-54 with 138 Republicans joining 223 Democrats to override the veto. The bill also authorizes funding for hurricane protection in Louisiana and restoration of the Everglades in Florida. President Bush vetoed the measure because he believed it was too costly and would overtax the Army Corps of Engineers. It was the first veto override of his presidency. A two-thirds majority is needed to override a veto.

Although environmentalists and many Republicans united to support the water bill, not everyone thinks the veto override was a good idea. Michael Grunwald, senior correspondent for Time Magazine tells Grist magazine that they missed an excellent opportunity to use the water bill as leverage to reform the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers.

Congress Buys CO2 Offsets For Capitol Power Plant

The CEO of the U.S. House of Representatives purchased 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) for $89,000 from the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCE). They appear to have paid a little more because the CCE price per ton for credits is now $2.00 per ton, which would be $60,000. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has vowed to make the House green by the end of 2008. The CEO chose the CCE instead of another service that offers specific credits for specific technologies. Congress has yet to establish a mandatory carbon trading program for the country. (The Washington Post)

We have established a service to provide CO2 credits based on nuclear power. Our program is similar to the CCE in that it is voluntary. The Center is still trying to get a nuclear company to agree to provide carbon dioxide offset credits based on uprates, license renewals and construction of new nuclear power plants. The Center's credit sell for $10 per ton through our Green Carbon Bank. We hope to also offer nonnuclear credits through out Carbon Mercantile Exchange.

New Nuclear Plant Being Built In Liaoning Province

China is planning to build a new nuclear power plant, the Hongyanhe nuclear power station, located the Donggang Township, of Dalian's Wafangdian City, Liaoning Province. It will have six generating units, each with an installed capacity of one million kilowatts and is being built by the Liaoning Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Co Ltd.

The China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group Holdings Co Ltd and the China Power Investment Corporation will each hold a 45-percent stake, and the remaining 10 percent will be held by the Dalian Municipal Construction Investment Company.The project was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2006. It is projected to cost 23 billion yuan (3.03 billion US dollars). China built its first nuclear power plant in east coastal Zhejiang Province in 1991. (ChinaDaily)

China Nuclear Power: Past, Present & Future

China started nuclear power operations in 1991, when Qinshan-I, a 300-megawatt (MW) pressurized-water reactor unit, independently developed by China, plugged into the grid. China plans to take its nuclear power capacity from about 9000 MW in 2007 to 40000 MW by 2020.

American Rivers-NOAA River Restoration Grants

Americn Rivers seeks proposals for river restoration project grants as part of its partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Community-based Restoration Program. Program funding is provided through NOAA's Open Rivers Initiative, which seeks to enable environmental and economic renewal in local communities through the removal of stream barriers.

This Partnership funds stream barrier removal projects that help restore riverine ecosystems, enhance public safety and community resilience, and have clear and identifiable benefits to diadromous fish populations. "Diadromous" fish migrate between freshwater and saltwater during their life cycle. Examples include alewife, American eel, American shad, blueback herring, salmon, steelhead, shortnose sturgeon and striped bass. Projects in the Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI), Mid-Atlantic (NY, NJ, PA, DE, VA, MD, DC), Northwest (WA, OR, ID), and California are eligible to apply. Projects located within the St. Lawrence/Great Lakes Basin are not eligible for funding in the December 2007 grant round.

Eligible applications will be evaluated based upon four priority criteria: (1) ecological merits of the project, (2) technical feasibility of the project, (3) benefits provided to the local community, and (4) financial clarity and strength of the application.

Grants are provided for three distinct project phases: Feasibility Analysis, Engineering Design and Construction. Average grants are $25,000 - $50,000. Successful applicants for one project phase will not be eligible to receive additional funding for that same project phase in future grant rounds. See the Funding Guidelines for additional details.

Applications are currently being accepted for the first cycle of fiscal year 2008 with a deadline of December 3, 2007. Applications for projects must be postmarked by the deadline for consideration in this funding cycle. Potential applicants should contact American Rivers to discuss potential projects prior to submitting an application. Applicants can expect notification about funding decisions in early March 2008.

NOTE: Our eligibility requirements and application content have changed. Obtain the Application for Financial Assistance and Funding Guidelines or contact us them the addresses below.

Contact: Serena S. McClain, American Rivers, 1101 14th Street, NW Suite 1400
Washington, DC 20005 Email: http://www.blogger.com/

The Downside of Ethanol

One blogger's take (Little Blog In The Big Woods).

MIT Greenhouse Gas Emissions Prediction & Policy Analysis

The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model is applied to an assessment of a set of cap-and-trade proposals being considered by the U.S. Congress in spring 2007. The bills specify emissions reductions to be achieved through 2050 for the standard six-gas basket of greenhouse gases. They fall into two groups: one specifies emissions reductions of 50% to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050; the other establishes a tightening target for emissions intensity and stipulates a time-path for a “safety valve” limit on the emission price that approximately stabilizes U.S. emissions at the 2008 level. A set of three synthetic emissions paths are defined that span the range of stringency of these proposals, and these “core” cases are analyzed for their consequences in terms of emissions prices, effects on energy markets, welfare cost, the potential revenue generation if allowances are auctioned and the gains if permit revenue were used to reduce capital or labor taxes.

Initial period prices for the first group of proposals, in carbon dioxide equivalents, are estimated between $30 and $50 per ton CO2-e depending on where each falls in the 50% to 80% range, with these prices rising by a factor of four by 2050. Welfare costs are less than 0.5% at the start, rising in the most stringent case to near 2% in 2050. If allowances were auctioned these proposals could produce revenue between $100 billion and $500 billion per year depending on the case. Emissions prices for the second group, which result from the specified safety-valve path, rise from $7 to $40 over the study period, with welfare effects rising from near zero to approximately a 0.5% loss in 2050. Revenue in these proposals depends on how many allowances are freely distributed.

To analyze these proposals assumptions must be made about mitigation effort abroad, and simulations are provided to illuminate terms-of-trade effects that influence the emissions prices and welfare effects, and even the environmental effectiveness, of U.S. actions. Sensitivity tests also are provided of several of the design features imposed in the “core” scenarios including the role of banking, the specification of less than complete coverage of economic sectors, and the development of international permit trading. Also, the effects of alternative assumptionsabout nuclear power development are explored. Of particular importance in these simulations is the role of biofuels, and analysis is provided of the implications of these proposals for land use and agriculture.

Finally, the U.S. proposals, and the assumptions about effort elsewhere, are extended to 2100 to allow exploration of the potential role of these bills in the longer-term challenge of reducing climate change risk. Simulations using the MIT Integrated System Model show that the 50% to 80% targets are consistent with global goals of atmospheric stabilization at 450 to 550 ppmv CO2 but only if other nations, including the developing countries, follow. (Source: MIT)

Inside The Beltway Climate Change Wonk Fight

Sport inside the Beltway. The right and left just love this competition. The left says Julie L. Gerberding's testimony was doctored by the Bush right to water down global warming information. CDC Director Gerberding submitted her Senate testimony to the White House Office of Management and Budget and word gets out that it was doctored down from 14 pages to four. WOW. Now here is a path to climate change solutions.

This sort of dance has happened before. It will happen again. Administration scientists say they are being repressed. The Administration then says they are simply trying to present a 'balanced view.' And around and around we go. The press jumps on it. Congress milks it. And we just have to wait for the next scientific report and it will start all over again. The CDC is part of the Department of Health and Human Services.